UK Edition
At least 1.6m people could be infected with coronavirus in England - find out how many in your area
England's worst-hit region to date is London, but most cases are now outside the capital and spreading rapidly
New analysis has shown that 1.6m people in England could already be infected by coronavirus, with more than half of these people living outside the capital.
And the figure could already be as high as 2.8m come Sunday, The Telegraph has calculated, assuming the infection has a daily growth rate of 20 per cent, as predicted by researchers.
The modelling, conducted by Edge Health and shown in the chart below, shows that despite just under 10,000 confirmed coronavirus cases being recorded as of Thursday, the actual number of infections in England is likely to be at least 1,614,505.
England's worst-hit region to date is London, where 760,590 Covid cases were estimated - some 47 per cent of the total. But most cases are now outside the capital and spreading rapidly.
The Midlands, an emerging hotspot, is thought to be hosting a further 282,954 infections, according to the new study.
London is home to England's 17 worst-impacted local authorities, with Southwark having the highest rate of infection. With one in every six people estimated to have been infected, the borough is at the epicentre of the UK's fight against coronavirus. The chart below shows the actual, rather than estimated, data.
While Southwark had 253 officially recorded cases as of Thursday, the actual number of infected people is estimated to be as high as 49,139.
Official test numbers massively underplay the scale of the epidemic because test capacity is limited and only a tiny fraction of those displaying symptoms are being tested.
In six other London boroughs more than one in 10 people now carry the virus, according to the modelling: Lambeth, Brent, Kensington and Chelsea, Harrow, Wandsworth and Westminster.
Cumbria in the North West and Wolverhampton in the Midlands are the worst-impacted areas outside London, with one in 13 and one in 15 people infected respectively.
Birmingham had the highest total number of infections, with a total of 50,004 estimated cases - one in every 23 people.
George Batchelor, a co-founder of Edge health, the company which conducted the modelling, warned that the UK epidemic would continue to spread at speed for the next few weeks.
The UK lockdown was only introduced five days ago and its impact in slowing the virus will take some time to become evident on the ground. Italy’s lockdown, implemented weeks before our own, is only now just starting to show up in the official data.
The Edge Health research team calculated the expected number of cases by looking at the total number of recorded deaths in each region, assuming a mortality rate of 0.7 per cent in London and 0.9 per cent outside the capital where the population is older.
The modelling can never be perfect but, based on the best available evidence on death rates, it is likely to give a reasonable indication of the current spread of the virus in England.
It points to the future demand that the NHS is bracing for, with people infected before Boris Johnson imposed a national lockdown expected to start to present in hospital wards across the country over the next few weeks.
Edge Health expects critical care bed occupancy to peak over a week in mid-April.
Kingston upon Hull, North East Lincolnshire and Hartlepool had the lowest estimated rate of infection, with one in every 619, 304 and 295 people infected respectively as of Thursday. The chart below shows the actual number of cases.
Epicentre of the virus in the UK will move
While London is the country's epicentre right now, that will change as the virus moves across the country.
The Isle of Wight, Kingston upon Hull and Blackburn with Darwen all had growth rates of 100 per cent or higher last week - meaning that cases doubled between Wednesday and Thursday.
Among local authorities to have already seen over 100 cases, Essex saw the highest daily growth rate, at 48 per cent.
With areas outside the capital generally having older populations and fewer hospital beds available, there are fears over the NHS's capacity to deal with a surge in demand should the virus take hold in such areas.
Mr Batchelor said the latest modelling proved the need for social distancing and further testing.
He said: "Critically these projections are based on unproven assumptions, although hopefully, they make clear the need for social distancing whether you are in Southwark or Hartlepool.
“More testing would help to understand the actual number of people that have had the infection. It will also help to speed up the eventual return to normality."